06Jun

After seeing investors move their money out of hedge funds for nine consecutive quarters, Bloomberg says better times for the industry are right around the corner.

The prediction comes from a Bloomberg Mandates survey of 50 institutional allocators with more than $500 billion in assets. Half of them said they have or plan to increase their investment in hedge funds.

Reporting on the results of the survey, Boomberg.com said, “The industry emerged as the top pick among six major alternative asset classes, followed by private debt. About 60% of those surveyed said they were re-jiggering their investments as a result of the market turmoil.”

That’s good news for managers. Hedge funds have been struggling for several years just to stay even with market indices. In the first half of this year, Hedge Fund Research reports that on an asset-weighted basis, the industry lost 7.9%.

However, Evestment said average hedge fund returns in June were positive by 2.07%. That improved the average half-year return to a minus 3.37% for the industry as a whole. By comparison, the S&P 500 was off 3.08% at mid-year, according to Evestment data.

A Credit Suisse survey released at the end of June found that among the 160 institutional investors it surveyed, hedge funds were strongly favored among the 10 major asset classes. At 32%, net demand — the percentage of investors increasing allocations less the percentage decreasing – was the highest in the last five years.

Joseph Gasparro, Credit Suisse’s, head of Americas capital services content, suggested that the renewed enthusiasm for hedge funds is being driven by the market uncertainties as evidenced by the vacillation in the S&P.

“The incredible run-up in equities from late March to early June, the ‘easy money’ if you will, is likely not going to repeat,” Gasparro told Bloomberg. “The environment going forward will include more uncertainties, with investors relying on hedge funds to help navigate.”

In the Bloomberg Mandates survey, 60% of those surveyed said they were reallocating their investment mix because of the market turmoil. Bloomberg said long-short equity was the most popular hedge fund strategy. Funds-of-funds was the least popular.

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Are Boomers Banking’s Next-Gen Customers?

With Gen Z — that generation born after the mid-1990s — beginning to earn their first paychecks, the establishment banking industry is rushing to sign them up and capture their loyalty before they decide to go with a fintech startup.

“Financial marketers must reach out to this generation right now or their window of opportunity may slam shut forever,” cautions The Financial Brand’s Executive Editor Steve Cocheo.

The dire warning is based on a report from Raddon Research which says 8-in-10 Gen Zers are “open to and excited by nontraditional financial services” or “love digital banking channels” and prefer avoiding in-person banking, even if they consider traditional banks necessary.

It’s especially urgent for credit unions and community banks to move quickly and decisively, because they’re still playing catch-up for the business of millennials who gravitated to the nation’s biggest banks. Credit unions are doing better, but community banks, according to research cited by The Financial Brand, are struggling to capture younger banking customers.

Geography, which used to be the primary influencer on where a customer chose to bank, has a far less important role since the advent of digital banking. When you need cash, ATMs are ubiquitous.

It seems a reasonable case to make that the banking industry as a whole, and smaller banks in particular, needs to develop products and offerings geared to the Gen Z market.

But a Forbes article says, “Don’t believe it.”

“Warnings like this are reminiscent of those from 10 to 15 years ago regarding millennials. Roll the clock forward to today, and three megabanks — Bank of America, Chase, and Wells Fargo — have 44% market share of millennials. And they were hardly the ones ‘decoding’ millennials before it was “too late.”

So who should banks be pursuing with vigor? Baby boomers, writes Ron Shevlin, managing director of fintech research at Cornerstone Advisors.

He doesn’t suggest ignoring Gen Z, just that banks gave at least equal time to older customers. Three trends make boomers different from the generations that preceded them:

  1. They are working longer and many are taking part-time jobs in retirement to keep busy and supplement their income.
  2. Family dynamics are changing how money is handled and debt is incurred. Many boomers have taken over the financial affairs of their aging parents.
  3. Healthcare is becoming a greater concern due to rising costs and worries about incapacitating illnesses and the need for long-term care.

Concludes Shevlin: “The oldest boomers are just in their mid-70s. The challenges listed here are more prevalent among consumers in the late 70s and early 80s, however. This means there is a window for new product and service development. With the youngest boomers in their late-50s, it also means that the life cycle for these new products and services could run for the next 30 years.”

Photo by Eduardo Soares on Unsplash

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Bank Branches, Threatened But Surviving

Thought to be endangered by the twin threats of mobile banking and the COVID-19 pandemic, bank branches it turns out, still have plenty of life left.

The Financial Brand reports that an FDIC report released at the end of September showed a net decline of 1,463 bank branches between July 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020. That’s about 12% higher than last year, but not the tsunami some analysts were predicting. Banks closed 2,642 branches while opening 1,179.

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Zeroing in on just the pandemic months from March through August this year, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency received notice of 893 branch closings. For the same period in 2019, 967 notifications were submitted.

However, the trend is clearly headed down, if slowly. Over the last 10 years, the banking sector averaged 1,861 closures and 982 new branch openings annually. In 2011 there were about 90,000 bank branches. As of the end of June 2020, there were just over 80,000.

Because of regulatory requirements, “It’s hard to close a branch,” Richard Walker of Deloitte Consulting told Forbes. But that’s not the only reason, he added, “Banks still view branches as a critical part of their footprint.”

So do consumers, including those who have embraced mobile banking for the first time during the COVID lockdown. Research by the Simon-Kucher & Partners consulting firm reported in the ABA’s BankingJournal found 54% of customers would open an account only at a branch. A majority would visit a branch to open a business account and 69% said they’d go to a branch for a mortgage, despite the availability of online mortgage lenders.

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That survey also found customers willing to walk or drive longer distances to do business in a bank branch.

Still, 42% of customers say even after business returns to normal they expect they won’t be visiting branches as much.

Mindful of the trend toward online banking and the need to compete with the fintechs, bank executives are looking to transform branches as places that are mostly transactional to focus more on meeting customer financial needs. “I think there’s a goal for branches turning into more advice centers than transaction centers as they were in the past,” Bruce Van Saun, chair and CEO of Citizens Financial Group told Forbes.

That might just be a winning formula. In another, recent Simon-Kucher & Partners survey, consumers said a bank’s reputation, insured accounts and the bonus offered for opening an account are their top three reasons for choosing a bank. But next are “features that make saving engaging and fun” and how the bank values their loyalty.

Photo by Floriane Vita on Unsplash

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